Hello all
I just read an article, where Novell's CEO says that Linux will not be on the consumer desktop in at least for another 3 years. And that made me think.
We, users of Linux and open source software, would be happy to see everyone using Linux. We use it every day ourselves. And we're happy with it. Dell is installing Ubuntu Linux on various models, and people are buying them, preferring this to installing it by themselves. IBM, Sun and other vendors provide Linux systems just as they do Windows-based ones. Isn't this a nice trend that shows readiness of an operating system and its acceptance by vendors?
With this trend, how can it be that Linux on the desktop will take another 3-4 years? And what does it mean exactly? Linux desktop share currently stands about 3-4% of total desktop installations. Another 3-4% goes to Apple Mac OS X installations, another similar share to other alternative operating systems (such as Free/Net/OpenBSD, BeOs, Haiku, OpenSolaris, etc).
But Windows OS is spanning over 90% of all desktop computers. So, my guess, that in 3-4 years Linux installations can get to say, 10%. Will this mean that it is "on the desktop"? What numbers it should show for CEOs and other similarly hierarchially placed people, compared to a Windows OS so they will consider it "there"?
I personally believe, that any tool that you use should server its purpose and serve it well. If it does not do what it is supposed to do, choose another tool. I recently began to believe that there's a place for Windows systems as well for Linux systems, but I am still open-source minded. Choosing Linux or Windows, or Mac or Solaris is purely business decision in many cases. If choosing Linux on the desktop provides me with the tool to do my job (or work, or fun and procrastinate) - that's fine. If Window does the same - that's fine too, I'll just go with cheaper solution in the long run.
All the tools I use in Windows (those that are not forced on me anyway) are open source - VirtualWin, vi, GIMP, Open Office, Firefox, Innotek VirtualBox, 7zip; and much more - and if I go to Linux I will use the same tools, so I don't have to re-teach myself each time I switch platform.
So for me Linux is really on the desktop for about 4 and half years already. I don't even use Window at home anymore. And yet, Novell's CEO thinks that it will take another 3-4. If that's what a CEO thinks, then no wonder that it is all about Novell Linux. Maybe they are hibernated and there's an alarm clock set into the 3-years distant perfect future.
I wonder where RedHat and Ubuntu will be by then.
